CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3–0 Deportiva Minera

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportiva Minera

Diego Jiménez 87', 79', 59'

4/22/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 30Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia42%

×Draw28%

Deportiva Minera31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchDeportiva Minera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.06

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.29

Deportiva Minera

1.06

CAP Ciudad de Murcia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 78 away

1.03

creates per match

1.08

1.04

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

Deportiva Minera

1.08

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Deportiva Minera

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Deportiva Minera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Deportiva Minera →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

69%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Deportiva Minera

72%

Draw or Deportiva Minera

58%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

19%

Deportiva Minera wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

72%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

37%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

14%

Deportiva Minera 1+ goals

65%

Deportiva Minera 2+ goals

29%

Deportiva Minera 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

58%

Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Deportiva Minera away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.56 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Deportiva Minera defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.29

Deportiva Minera attack 1.08 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

42%

level

28%

Deportiva Minera scores more

31%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

Francisco Hernández← Raúl Tornel

57'

Pablo Guillen← Alberto Martínez

57'

Diego Jiménez← Fran Conesa

57'

Nasta← Dani Ruiz

57'

Chema← Diego Piquero

59'

Diego Jiménez

65'

Gabri← Victor

65'

Paco Quiles← Thales Fidélis

71'

José García← Xavi Priego

79'

Diego Jiménez

85'

Asensio Miñarro← Fran Martínez

87'

Jesús Ros← Pedro

87'

Diego Jiménez

CAP

Deportiva

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Francisco Lorca

57'▲Francisco Hernández←▼Raúl Tornel

57'▲Pablo Guillen←▼Alberto Martínez

57'▲Diego Jiménez←▼Fran Conesa

85'▲Asensio Miñarro←▼Fran Martínez

87'▲Jesús Ros←▼Pedro

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

HernándezGuillenJiménezMiñarroRos

Manager: José Pérez

57'▲Nasta←▼Dani Ruiz

57'▲Chema←▼Diego Piquero

65'▲Gabri←▼Victor

65'▲Paco Quiles←▼Thales Fidélis

71'▲José García←▼Xavi Priego

Deportiva Minera substitutes

NastaChemaGabriQuilesGarcía

Match Recap: CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Deportiva Minera

CAP Ciudad de Murcia beat Deportiva Minera 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 22, 2023.

Goals: Diego Jiménez (59', 79', 87').

The match was played at Estadio José Barnés in Murcia.

CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Deportiva Minera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Deportiva Minera