CAP Ciudad de Murcia 0–0 Cieza: Result & Stats

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cieza

2/4/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 19Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia28%

×Draw29%

Cieza43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchCieza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.23

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.95

Cieza

1.23

Cieza creates 29% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 66 away

1.03

creates per match

1.42

1.04

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

Cieza

1.42

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Cieza

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Cieza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Cieza →

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

57%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Cieza

71%

Draw or Cieza

72%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

10%

Cieza wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

61%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

25%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

Cieza 1+ goals

71%

Cieza 2+ goals

35%

Cieza 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

40%

Cieza (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Cieza away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.86 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Cieza defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.95

Cieza attack 1.42 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

28%

level

29%

Cieza scores more

43%

Cieza at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cieza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Cano← Carmelo Merenciano

65'

Papi← Dani Pérez

65'

Chema Lorente← Raúl Botía

66'

Lorenzo Lopez← Alejandro Pascual

80'

Antonio García← Parada

85'

David Vera← Fernando Carmona

CAP

Cieza

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Francisco Lorca

66'▲Lorenzo Lopez←▼Alejandro Pascual

85'▲David Vera←▼Fernando Carmona

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

LopezVera

Manager: Paco García

46'▲Cano←▼Carmelo Merenciano

65'▲Papi←▼Dani Pérez

65'▲Chema Lorente←▼Raúl Botía

80'▲Antonio García←▼Parada

Cieza substitutes

CanoPapiLorenteGarcía