CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2–0 Bala Azul: Result & Stats

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bala Azul

Pedro Cárceles 90+4'

Samuel Martínez 39'

11/7/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 11Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia40%

×Draw29%

Bala Azul30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchBala Azul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.97

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.17

Bala Azul

0.97

CAP Ciudad de Murcia creates 21% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 51 away

1.03

creates per match

0.90

1.04

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

Bala Azul

0.90

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Bala Azul

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Bala Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Bala Azul →

0–012%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

70%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Bala Azul

71%

Draw or Bala Azul

60%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

17%

Bala Azul wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

69%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

33%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

11%

Bala Azul 1+ goals

62%

Bala Azul 2+ goals

25%

Bala Azul 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

57%

Bala Azul (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Bala Azul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Bala Azul defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Bala Azul attack 0.90 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

40%

level

29%

Bala Azul scores more

30%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

Samuel Martínez

46'

Jaime Vera← Pedro García

46'

Alberto Lopez← Alberto Verdeguer

70'

Pablo Guillen← Miguel

82'

Pedro Cárceles← Emilio Pérez

89'

Miguel Martínez← G. Ochoaizpur

90+1'

Alberto Martínez← Javi Muñoz

90+4'

Pedro Cárceles

CAP

Bala

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ismael Ibañez

70'▲Pablo Guillen←▼Miguel

82'▲Pedro Cárceles←▼Emilio Pérez

90+1'▲Alberto Martínez←▼Javi Muñoz

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

GuillenCárcelesMartínez

Manager: Sergio Yúfera

46'▲Jaime Vera←▼Pedro García

46'▲Alberto Lopez←▼Alberto Verdeguer

89'▲Miguel Martínez←▼G. Ochoaizpur

Bala Azul substitutes

VeraLopezMartínez