CAP Ciudad de Murcia 0–1 Águilas: Result & Stats

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Águilas

Pedro Parra 8'

1/26/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 22Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia29%

×Draw31%

Águilas40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchÁguilas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.07

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.86

Águilas

1.07

Águilas creates 24% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 42 away

1.03

creates per match

1.10

1.04

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

Águilas

1.10

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Águilas

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Águilas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Águilas →

0–015%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

60%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Águilas

69%

Draw or Águilas

71%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

10%

Águilas wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

58%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

21%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

Águilas 1+ goals

66%

Águilas 2+ goals

29%

Águilas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

42%

Águilas (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Águilas away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Águilas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.86

Águilas attack 1.10 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

29%

level

31%

Águilas scores more

40%

Águilas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Águilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Pedro Parra

46'

George← Julio Jiménez

56'

Eloy← David Pele

76'

José Manuel← José David

79'

Nestor Henarejos← Hamza

86'

B. Caballero← Xavi Pons

89'

Francisco Lopez← Juanan

CAP

Águilas

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Roberto Lucas

46'▲George←▼Julio Jiménez

56'▲Eloy←▼David Pele

79'▲Nestor Henarejos←▼Hamza

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

GeorgeEloyHenarejos

Manager: Francisco Lorca

76'▲José Manuel←▼José David

86'▲B. Caballero←▼Xavi Pons

89'▲Francisco Lopez←▼Juanan

Águilas substitutes

ManuelCaballeroLopez