Canuelas 1–1 Villa San Carlos: Result & Stats

Canuelas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Villa San Carlos

3/25/2023

Primera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 7Estadio Jorge Alfredo Arín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Canuelas41%

×Draw29%

Villa San Carlos29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CanuelasExpected goals in this matchVilla San Carlos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.95

Canuelas

1.19

Villa San Carlos

0.95

Canuelas creates 25% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 128 away

1.07

creates per match

0.82

1.07

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Canuelas

1.07

Villa San Carlos

0.82

allows per match

Canuelas

1.07

Villa San Carlos

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Canuelas+0.00on par

Villa San Carlos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canuelas ↓

Villa San Carlos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Canuelas or draw

71%

Canuelas or Villa San Carlos

71%

Draw or Villa San Carlos

59%

Winning margin

Canuelas wins by 2+

18%

Villa San Carlos wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Canuelas 1+ goals

70%

Canuelas 2+ goals

33%

Canuelas 3+ goals

12%

Villa San Carlos 1+ goals

61%

Villa San Carlos 2+ goals

25%

Villa San Carlos 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Canuelas (draw refunded)

59%

Villa San Carlos (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canuelas at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

Villa San Carlos away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.30 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canuelas attack 1.07 + Villa San Carlos defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Villa San Carlos attack 0.82 + Canuelas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Canuelas scores more

41%

level

29%

Villa San Carlos scores more

29%

Canuelas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Canuelas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff