Canuelas 1–1 San Martín Burzaco: Result & Stats

Canuelas

FT

1 – 1

San Martín Burzaco

5/5/2019

Primera C · Round 36Estadio Jorge Alfredo Arín (Cañuelas, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Canuelas41%

×Draw28%

San Martín Burzaco30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CanuelasExpected goals in this matchSan Martín Burzaco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.02

Canuelas

1.24

San Martín Burzaco

1.02

Canuelas creates 22% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 89 away

1.24

creates per match

0.87

1.17

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Canuelas

1.24

San Martín Burzaco

0.87

allows per match

Canuelas

1.17

San Martín Burzaco

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Canuelas+0.00on par

San Martín Burzaco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canuelas ↓

San Martín Burzaco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Canuelas or draw

70%

Canuelas or San Martín Burzaco

72%

Draw or San Martín Burzaco

59%

Winning margin

Canuelas wins by 2+

18%

San Martín Burzaco wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Canuelas 1+ goals

71%

Canuelas 2+ goals

35%

Canuelas 3+ goals

13%

San Martín Burzaco 1+ goals

64%

San Martín Burzaco 2+ goals

27%

San Martín Burzaco 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Canuelas (draw refunded)

58%

San Martín Burzaco (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canuelas at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

San Martín Burzaco away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.24 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canuelas attack 1.24 + San Martín Burzaco defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.24

San Martín Burzaco attack 0.87 + Canuelas defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Canuelas scores more

41%

level

28%

San Martín Burzaco scores more

30%

Canuelas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Canuelas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff