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Canuelas vs Argentino de Merlo — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Canuelas
Canuelas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Argentino de Merlo
Argentino de Merlo
4/22/2023Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 11Estadio Jorge Alfredo Arín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Canuelas35%
×Draw30%
Argentino de Merlo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canuelas
1.03
Argentino de Merlo
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 74 away

creates per match

Canuelas
1.07
Argentino de Merlo
0.95

allows per match

Canuelas
1.07
Argentino de Merlo
0.99

finishing

Canuelas+0.00on par
Argentino de Merlo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canuelas ↓

Argentino de Merlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Canuelas or draw
66%
Canuelas or Argentino de Merlo
70%
Draw or Argentino de Merlo
65%

Winning margin

Canuelas wins by 2+
14%
Argentino de Merlo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Canuelas 1+ goals
64%
Canuelas 2+ goals
28%
Canuelas 3+ goals
9%
Argentino de Merlo 1+ goals
64%
Argentino de Merlo 2+ goals
27%
Argentino de Merlo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Canuelas (draw refunded)
51%
Argentino de Merlo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canuelas at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

Argentino de Merlo away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.99 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canuelas attack 1.07 + Argentino de Merlo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.03

Argentino de Merlo attack 0.95 + Canuelas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Canuelas scores more
35%
level
30%
Argentino de Merlo scores more
34%

Canuelas at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Canuelas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Canuelas vs Argentino de Merlo

Canuelas beat Argentino de Merlo 2-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Alfredo Arín in Cañuelas, Provincia de Buenos Aires.