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Cantolagua vs Valle Egüés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Cantolagua
Cantolagua
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Valle Egüés
Valle Egüés
3/18/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 26Estadio Municipal Cantolagua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Cantolagua39%
×Draw25%
Valle Egüés36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cantolagua
1.48
Valle Egüés
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 90 away

creates per match

Cantolagua
1.58
Valle Egüés
1.27

allows per match

Cantolagua
1.57
Valle Egüés
1.38

finishing

Cantolagua+0.00on par
Valle Egüés+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cantolagua ↓

Valle Egüés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cantolagua or draw
64%
Cantolagua or Valle Egüés
75%
Draw or Valle Egüés
61%

Winning margin

Cantolagua wins by 2+
19%
Valle Egüés wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cantolagua 1+ goals
77%
Cantolagua 2+ goals
43%
Cantolagua 3+ goals
19%
Valle Egüés 1+ goals
76%
Valle Egüés 2+ goals
41%
Valle Egüés 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cantolagua (draw refunded)
52%
Valle Egüés (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cantolagua at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

Valle Egüés away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cantolagua attack 1.58 + Valle Egüés defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Valle Egüés attack 1.27 + Cantolagua defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cantolagua scores more
39%
level
25%
Valle Egüés scores more
36%

Cantolagua at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cantolagua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Cantolagua 2–2 Valle Egüés

Cantolagua and Valle Egüés drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Cantolagua in Sangüesa.