Cantolagua 5–4 Oberena: Result & Stats

Cantolagua

5 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Oberena

1/28/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 19Estadio Municipal Cantolagua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Cantolagua49%

×Draw23%

Oberena28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CantolaguaExpected goals in this matchOberena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.33

Cantolagua

1.83

Oberena

1.33

Cantolagua creates 38% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 49 away

1.58

creates per match

1.08

1.57

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Cantolagua

1.58

Oberena

1.08

allows per match

Cantolagua

1.57

Oberena

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cantolagua+0.00on par

Oberena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cantolagua ↓

Oberena →

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Cantolagua or draw

72%

Cantolagua or Oberena

77%

Draw or Oberena

51%

Winning margin

Cantolagua wins by 2+

27%

Oberena wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cantolagua 1+ goals

84%

Cantolagua 2+ goals

54%

Cantolagua 3+ goals

28%

Oberena 1+ goals

74%

Oberena 2+ goals

38%

Oberena 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cantolagua (draw refunded)

64%

Oberena (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cantolagua at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

Oberena away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cantolagua attack 1.58 + Oberena defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.83

Oberena attack 1.08 + Cantolagua defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cantolagua scores more

49%

level

23%

Oberena scores more

28%

Cantolagua at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cantolagua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff