Cantolagua 2–3 Avance Ezcabarte: Result & Stats

Cantolagua

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Avance Ezcabarte

10/30/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 8Estadio Municipal Cantolagua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Cantolagua44%

×Draw25%

Avance Ezcabarte31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CantolaguaExpected goals in this matchAvance Ezcabarte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.27

Cantolagua

1.54

Avance Ezcabarte

1.27

Cantolagua creates 21% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 64 away

1.58

creates per match

0.97

1.57

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Cantolagua

1.58

Avance Ezcabarte

0.97

allows per match

Cantolagua

1.57

Avance Ezcabarte

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cantolagua+0.00on par

Avance Ezcabarte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cantolagua ↓

Avance Ezcabarte →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cantolagua or draw

69%

Cantolagua or Avance Ezcabarte

75%

Draw or Avance Ezcabarte

56%

Winning margin

Cantolagua wins by 2+

22%

Avance Ezcabarte wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cantolagua 1+ goals

79%

Cantolagua 2+ goals

45%

Cantolagua 3+ goals

20%

Avance Ezcabarte 1+ goals

72%

Avance Ezcabarte 2+ goals

36%

Avance Ezcabarte 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cantolagua (draw refunded)

58%

Avance Ezcabarte (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cantolagua at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

Avance Ezcabarte away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cantolagua attack 1.58 + Avance Ezcabarte defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Avance Ezcabarte attack 0.97 + Cantolagua defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cantolagua scores more

44%

level

25%

Avance Ezcabarte scores more

31%

Cantolagua at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cantolagua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff