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Avance Ezcabarte vs Cantolagua — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Avance Ezcabarte
Avance Ezcabarte
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Cantolagua
Cantolagua
12/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 15Campo Igueldea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Avance Ezcabarte45%
×Draw25%
Cantolagua30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avance Ezcabarte
1.57
Cantolagua
1.25

Avance Ezcabarte creates 26% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 77 away

creates per match

Avance Ezcabarte
1.72
Cantolagua
1.19

allows per match

Avance Ezcabarte
1.31
Cantolagua
1.42

finishing

Avance Ezcabarte+0.00on par
Cantolagua+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avance Ezcabarte ↓

Cantolagua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Avance Ezcabarte or draw
70%
Avance Ezcabarte or Cantolagua
75%
Draw or Cantolagua
55%

Winning margin

Avance Ezcabarte wins by 2+
23%
Cantolagua wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Avance Ezcabarte 1+ goals
79%
Avance Ezcabarte 2+ goals
46%
Avance Ezcabarte 3+ goals
21%
Cantolagua 1+ goals
71%
Cantolagua 2+ goals
36%
Cantolagua 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Avance Ezcabarte (draw refunded)
60%
Cantolagua (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avance Ezcabarte at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Cantolagua away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.42 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avance Ezcabarte attack 1.72 + Cantolagua defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.57

Cantolagua attack 1.19 + Avance Ezcabarte defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Avance Ezcabarte scores more
45%
level
25%
Cantolagua scores more
30%

Avance Ezcabarte at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Avance Ezcabarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Avance Ezcabarte 4–2 Cantolagua

Avance Ezcabarte beat Cantolagua 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on December 17, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Igueldea in Arre.