Arles 0–2 Monaco: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Arles

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Monaco

L. Ocampos 90'

E. Riviere 69'

2/4/2013

Ligue 2 · Round 23Parc des Sports (Avignon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Arles33%

×Draw29%

Monaco38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArlesExpected goals in this matchMonaco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.15

Arles

1.04

Monaco

1.15

Monaco creates 11% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 38 away

1.03

creates per match

1.29

1.01

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Arles

1.03

Monaco

1.29

allows per match

Arles

1.01

Monaco

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arles+0.00on par

Monaco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arles ↓

Monaco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Arles or draw

62%

Arles or Monaco

71%

Draw or Monaco

67%

Winning margin

Arles wins by 2+

13%

Monaco wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Arles 1+ goals

65%

Arles 2+ goals

28%

Arles 3+ goals

9%

Monaco 1+ goals

68%

Monaco 2+ goals

32%

Monaco 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Arles (draw refunded)

46%

Monaco (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arles at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Monaco away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arles attack 1.03 + Monaco defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Monaco attack 1.29 + Arles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arles scores more

33%

level

29%

Monaco scores more

38%

Monaco at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Monaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

T. Savanier← B. Psaume

67'

E. Riviere← I. Touré

69'

E. Riviere

75'

J. Delclos← R. Rocchi

75'

J. Tinhan← R. Caceres

84'

L. Ocampos← T. Dingome

86'

D. Appiah← V. Germain

90'

L. Ocampos

Arles

Monaco

1

12

24

21

3

19

7

23

29

▼

Dingome

11

▼

Touré

18

▼

1

5

15

13

6

8

4

7

▼

Rocchi

20

Abdelhami

10

▼

Psaume

11

▼

Caceres

62'▲T. Savanier←▼B. Psaume

75'▲J. Delclos←▼R. Rocchi

75'▲J. Tinhan←▼R. Caceres

Arles substitutes

25Savanier14Delclos19Tinhan27Rodriguez30Yattara

67'▲E. Riviere←▼I. Touré

84'▲L. Ocampos←▼T. Dingome

86'▲D. Appiah←▼V. Germain

Monaco substitutes

10Riviere15Ocampos2Appiah16Sourzac4Medjani

Ligue 2: Arles 0–2 Monaco

Monaco beat Arles 2-0 in Ligue 2 on February 4, 2013.

Goals: E. Riviere (69'), L. Ocampos (90').

The match was played at Parc des Sports (Avignon).

Arles vs Monaco — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ligue 2: Arles 0–2 Monaco