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Canterbury Bankstown vs Rydalmere Lions — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Canterbury Bankstown
Canterbury Bankstown
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rydalmere Lions
Rydalmere Lions
4/19/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 11Jensen Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Canterbury Bankstown46%
×Draw23%
Rydalmere Lions31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canterbury Bankstown
1.84
Rydalmere Lions
1.49

Canterbury Bankstown creates 23% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 56 away

creates per match

Canterbury Bankstown
1.71
Rydalmere Lions
1.57

allows per match

Canterbury Bankstown
1.41
Rydalmere Lions
1.98

finishing

Canterbury Bankstown+0.00on par
Rydalmere Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canterbury Bankstown ↓

Rydalmere Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Canterbury Bankstown or draw
69%
Canterbury Bankstown or Rydalmere Lions
77%
Draw or Rydalmere Lions
54%

Winning margin

Canterbury Bankstown wins by 2+
25%
Rydalmere Lions wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Canterbury Bankstown 1+ goals
84%
Canterbury Bankstown 2+ goals
55%
Canterbury Bankstown 3+ goals
28%
Rydalmere Lions 1+ goals
77%
Rydalmere Lions 2+ goals
44%
Rydalmere Lions 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Canterbury Bankstown (draw refunded)
59%
Rydalmere Lions (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canterbury Bankstown at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.41 · 56 matches

Rydalmere Lions away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.98 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canterbury Bankstown attack 1.71 + Rydalmere Lions defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.84

Rydalmere Lions attack 1.57 + Canterbury Bankstown defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Canterbury Bankstown scores more
46%
level
23%
Rydalmere Lions scores more
31%

Canterbury Bankstown at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Canterbury Bankstown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Canterbury Bankstown vs Rydalmere Lions

Canterbury Bankstown beat Rydalmere Lions 3-2 in New South Wales NPL 2 on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Jensen Park in Sydney.