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Canterbury Bankstown vs Mounties Wanderers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Canterbury Bankstown
Canterbury Bankstown
FT
3 – 2
Mounties Wanderers
Mounties Wanderers
6/10/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 19Jensen Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Canterbury Bankstown51%
×Draw22%
Mounties Wanderers27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canterbury Bankstown
1.90
Mounties Wanderers
1.32

Canterbury Bankstown creates 44% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 50 away

creates per match

Canterbury Bankstown
1.71
Mounties Wanderers
1.24

allows per match

Canterbury Bankstown
1.41
Mounties Wanderers
2.08

finishing

Canterbury Bankstown+0.00on par
Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canterbury Bankstown ↓

Mounties Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Canterbury Bankstown or draw
73%
Canterbury Bankstown or Mounties Wanderers
78%
Draw or Mounties Wanderers
49%

Winning margin

Canterbury Bankstown wins by 2+
29%
Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Canterbury Bankstown 1+ goals
85%
Canterbury Bankstown 2+ goals
56%
Canterbury Bankstown 3+ goals
29%
Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals
73%
Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals
38%
Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Canterbury Bankstown (draw refunded)
66%
Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canterbury Bankstown at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.41 · 56 matches

Mounties Wanderers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.08 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canterbury Bankstown attack 1.71 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.90

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.24 + Canterbury Bankstown defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Canterbury Bankstown scores more
51%
level
22%
Mounties Wanderers scores more
27%

Canterbury Bankstown at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Canterbury Bankstown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Canterbury Bankstown 3 – 2 Mounties Wanderers

Canterbury Bankstown beat Mounties Wanderers 3-2 in New South Wales NPL 2 on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Jensen Park in Sydney.