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Canterbury Bankstown vs Dunbar Rovers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Canterbury Bankstown
Canterbury Bankstown
FT
0 – 0
Dunbar Rovers
Dunbar Rovers
4/15/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 11Jensen Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Canterbury Bankstown57%
×Draw21%
Dunbar Rovers21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canterbury Bankstown
2.04
Dunbar Rovers
1.17

Canterbury Bankstown creates 74% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 30 away

creates per match

Canterbury Bankstown
1.71
Dunbar Rovers
0.93

allows per match

Canterbury Bankstown
1.41
Dunbar Rovers
2.37

finishing

Canterbury Bankstown+0.00on par
Dunbar Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canterbury Bankstown ↓

Dunbar Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Canterbury Bankstown or draw
79%
Canterbury Bankstown or Dunbar Rovers
79%
Draw or Dunbar Rovers
43%

Winning margin

Canterbury Bankstown wins by 2+
34%
Dunbar Rovers wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Canterbury Bankstown 1+ goals
87%
Canterbury Bankstown 2+ goals
60%
Canterbury Bankstown 3+ goals
33%
Dunbar Rovers 1+ goals
69%
Dunbar Rovers 2+ goals
33%
Dunbar Rovers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Canterbury Bankstown (draw refunded)
73%
Dunbar Rovers (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canterbury Bankstown at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.41 · 56 matches

Dunbar Rovers away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canterbury Bankstown attack 1.71 + Dunbar Rovers defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.04

Dunbar Rovers attack 0.93 + Canterbury Bankstown defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Canterbury Bankstown scores more
57%
level
21%
Dunbar Rovers scores more
21%

Canterbury Bankstown at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Canterbury Bankstown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Canterbury Bankstown vs Dunbar Rovers

Canterbury Bankstown and Dunbar Rovers drew 0-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Jensen Park in Sydney.