Canterbury Bankstown 1–0 Central Coast United

Canterbury Bankstown

FT

1 – 0

Central Coast United

8/5/2023

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 27Jensen Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Canterbury Bankstown57%

×Draw20%

Central Coast United23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Canterbury BankstownExpected goals in this matchCentral Coast United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.40

Canterbury Bankstown

2.29

Central Coast United

1.40

Canterbury Bankstown creates 64% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 15 away

1.71

creates per match

1.40

1.41

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Canterbury Bankstown

1.71

Central Coast United

1.40

allows per match

Canterbury Bankstown

1.41

Central Coast United

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Canterbury Bankstown+0.00on par

Central Coast United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canterbury Bankstown ↓

Central Coast United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Canterbury Bankstown or draw

77%

Canterbury Bankstown or Central Coast United

80%

Draw or Central Coast United

43%

Winning margin

Canterbury Bankstown wins by 2+

36%

Central Coast United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Canterbury Bankstown 1+ goals

90%

Canterbury Bankstown 2+ goals

66%

Canterbury Bankstown 3+ goals

40%

Central Coast United 1+ goals

75%

Central Coast United 2+ goals

41%

Central Coast United 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Canterbury Bankstown (draw refunded)

71%

Central Coast United (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canterbury Bankstown at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.41 · 56 matches

Central Coast United away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canterbury Bankstown attack 1.71 + Central Coast United defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.29

Central Coast United attack 1.40 + Canterbury Bankstown defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Canterbury Bankstown scores more

57%

level

20%

Central Coast United scores more

23%

Canterbury Bankstown at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Canterbury Bankstown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff