Canterbury Bankstown 1–1 Bonnyrigg White Eagles

Canterbury Bankstown

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

8/16/2025

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 28Jensen Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Canterbury Bankstown49%

×Draw23%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Canterbury BankstownExpected goals in this matchBonnyrigg White Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.36

Canterbury Bankstown

1.84

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.36

Canterbury Bankstown creates 35% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 62 away

1.71

creates per match

1.31

1.41

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Canterbury Bankstown

1.71

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.31

allows per match

Canterbury Bankstown

1.41

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Canterbury Bankstown+0.00on par

Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canterbury Bankstown ↓

Bonnyrigg White Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Canterbury Bankstown or draw

71%

Canterbury Bankstown or Bonnyrigg White Eagles

77%

Draw or Bonnyrigg White Eagles

51%

Winning margin

Canterbury Bankstown wins by 2+

27%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Canterbury Bankstown 1+ goals

84%

Canterbury Bankstown 2+ goals

55%

Canterbury Bankstown 3+ goals

28%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals

74%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals

39%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Canterbury Bankstown (draw refunded)

63%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canterbury Bankstown at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.41 · 56 matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.98 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canterbury Bankstown attack 1.71 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.84

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.31 + Canterbury Bankstown defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Canterbury Bankstown scores more

49%

level

23%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more

29%

Canterbury Bankstown at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Canterbury Bankstown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff