Canon 3–4 Unisport Bafang: Result & Stats

Canon

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Unisport Bafang

2/16/2026

Elite One · Round 5Stade Omnisports Annexe 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Canon48%

×Draw26%

Unisport Bafang25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CanonExpected goals in this matchUnisport Bafang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.97

Canon

1.46

Unisport Bafang

0.97

Canon creates 51% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 21 away

1.24

creates per match

1.10

0.84

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Canon

1.24

Unisport Bafang

1.10

allows per match

Canon

0.84

Unisport Bafang

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Canon+0.00on par

Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canon ↓

Unisport Bafang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Canon or draw

75%

Canon or Unisport Bafang

74%

Draw or Unisport Bafang

52%

Winning margin

Canon wins by 2+

24%

Unisport Bafang wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Canon 1+ goals

77%

Canon 2+ goals

43%

Canon 3+ goals

18%

Unisport Bafang 1+ goals

62%

Unisport Bafang 2+ goals

25%

Unisport Bafang 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Canon (draw refunded)

66%

Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canon at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.84 · 90 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canon attack 1.24 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Unisport Bafang attack 1.10 + Canon defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Canon scores more

48%

level

26%

Unisport Bafang scores more

25%

Canon at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Canon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff