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Canon vs Stade Renard — Elite One 2019

Canon
Canon
FT
2 – 1
Stade Renard
Stade Renard
11/6/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 5Stade de Ngoa Ekélé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Canon43%
×Draw30%
Stade Renard27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canon
1.16
Stade Renard
0.86

Canon creates 35% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 96 away

creates per match

Canon
1.24
Stade Renard
0.88

allows per match

Canon
0.84
Stade Renard
1.07

finishing

Canon+0.00on par
Stade Renard+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canon ↓

Stade Renard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Canon or draw
73%
Canon or Stade Renard
70%
Draw or Stade Renard
57%

Winning margin

Canon wins by 2+
18%
Stade Renard wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Canon 1+ goals
69%
Canon 2+ goals
32%
Canon 3+ goals
11%
Stade Renard 1+ goals
58%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
21%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Canon (draw refunded)
61%
Stade Renard (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canon at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.84 · 90 matches

Stade Renard away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canon attack 1.24 + Stade Renard defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Stade Renard attack 0.88 + Canon defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Canon scores more
43%
level
30%
Stade Renard scores more
27%

Canon at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Canon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Canon 2–1 Stade Renard

Canon beat Stade Renard 2-1 in Elite One on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de Ngoa Ekélé in Yaoundé.