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Canon vs Les Astres — Elite One 2019

Canon
Canon
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Les Astres
Les Astres
12/29/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 12Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Canon44%
×Draw29%
Les Astres27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canon
1.27
Les Astres
0.94

Canon creates 35% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 75 away

creates per match

Canon
1.24
Les Astres
1.03

allows per match

Canon
0.84
Les Astres
1.31

finishing

Canon+0.00on par
Les Astres+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canon ↓

Les Astres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Canon or draw
73%
Canon or Les Astres
71%
Draw or Les Astres
56%

Winning margin

Canon wins by 2+
20%
Les Astres wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Canon 1+ goals
72%
Canon 2+ goals
36%
Canon 3+ goals
14%
Les Astres 1+ goals
61%
Les Astres 2+ goals
24%
Les Astres 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Canon (draw refunded)
62%
Les Astres (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canon at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.84 · 90 matches

Les Astres away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canon attack 1.24 + Les Astres defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Les Astres attack 1.03 + Canon defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Canon scores more
44%
level
29%
Les Astres scores more
27%

Canon at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Canon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Canon 1–0 Les Astres

Canon beat Les Astres 1-0 in Elite One on December 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport in Yaoundé.