Canon 1–0 Fauve Azur Elite: Result & Stats

Canon

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fauve Azur Elite

4/13/2025

Elite One · Round 19Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Canon46%

×Draw31%

Fauve Azur Elite23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CanonExpected goals in this matchFauve Azur Elite

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.72

Canon

1.16

Fauve Azur Elite

0.72

Canon creates 61% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 15 away

1.24

creates per match

0.60

0.84

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Canon

1.24

Fauve Azur Elite

0.60

allows per match

Canon

0.84

Fauve Azur Elite

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Canon+0.00on par

Fauve Azur Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canon ↓

Fauve Azur Elite →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Canon or draw

77%

Canon or Fauve Azur Elite

69%

Draw or Fauve Azur Elite

54%

Winning margin

Canon wins by 2+

20%

Fauve Azur Elite wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Canon 1+ goals

69%

Canon 2+ goals

32%

Canon 3+ goals

11%

Fauve Azur Elite 1+ goals

51%

Fauve Azur Elite 2+ goals

16%

Fauve Azur Elite 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Canon (draw refunded)

67%

Fauve Azur Elite (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canon at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.84 · 90 matches

Fauve Azur Elite away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canon attack 1.24 + Fauve Azur Elite defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Fauve Azur Elite attack 0.60 + Canon defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Canon scores more

46%

level

31%

Fauve Azur Elite scores more

23%

Canon at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Canon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff