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Canon vs Avion Academy — Elite One 2019

Canon
Canon
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Avion Academy
Avion Academy
2/19/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 13Stade de Ngoa Ekélé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Canon46%
×Draw29%
Avion Academy25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canon
1.25
Avion Academy
0.83

Canon creates 51% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 67 away

creates per match

Canon
1.24
Avion Academy
0.82

allows per match

Canon
0.84
Avion Academy
1.25

finishing

Canon+0.00on par
Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canon ↓

Avion Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Canon or draw
75%
Canon or Avion Academy
71%
Draw or Avion Academy
54%

Winning margin

Canon wins by 2+
21%
Avion Academy wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Canon 1+ goals
71%
Canon 2+ goals
36%
Canon 3+ goals
13%
Avion Academy 1+ goals
56%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
20%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Canon (draw refunded)
65%
Avion Academy (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canon at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.84 · 90 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canon attack 1.24 + Avion Academy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Avion Academy attack 0.82 + Canon defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Canon scores more
46%
level
29%
Avion Academy scores more
25%

Canon at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Canon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Canon vs Avion Academy

Canon beat Avion Academy 2-0 in Elite One on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Ngoa Ekélé in Yaoundé.