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Canon vs Aigle Royal — Elite One 2019

Canon
Canon
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
4/29/2026Elite OneElite One · Round 16Stade Omnisports Annexe 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Canon48%
×Draw28%
Aigle Royal24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canon
1.33
Aigle Royal
0.85

Canon creates 56% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 38 away

creates per match

Canon
1.24
Aigle Royal
0.87

allows per match

Canon
0.84
Aigle Royal
1.42

finishing

Canon+0.00on par
Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canon ↓

Aigle Royal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Canon or draw
76%
Canon or Aigle Royal
72%
Draw or Aigle Royal
52%

Winning margin

Canon wins by 2+
23%
Aigle Royal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Canon 1+ goals
74%
Canon 2+ goals
38%
Canon 3+ goals
15%
Aigle Royal 1+ goals
57%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
21%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Canon (draw refunded)
67%
Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canon at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.84 · 90 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canon attack 1.24 + Aigle Royal defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Aigle Royal attack 0.87 + Canon defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Canon scores more
48%
level
28%
Aigle Royal scores more
24%

Canon at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Canon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Canon vs Aigle Royal

Canon and Aigle Royal drew 1-1 in Elite One on April 29, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Annexe 1.