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Cannes vs Reims — Coupe de France 2018

Cannes
Cannes
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Reims
Reimsadvanced
C. N'Doye 52'
T. Teuma 58'
H. Ibrahim 14'
4/2/2025Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Semi-finalsStade Pierre de Coubertin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cannes28%
×Draw22%
Reims50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cannes
1.38
Reims
1.90

Reims creates 38% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cannes
1.82
Reims
2.36

allows per match

Cannes
1.45
Reims
0.93

finishing

Cannes+0.00on par
Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cannes ↓

Reims →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Cannes or draw
50%
Cannes or Reims
78%
Draw or Reims
72%

Winning margin

Cannes wins by 2+
12%
Reims wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Cannes 1+ goals
75%
Cannes 2+ goals
40%
Cannes 3+ goals
16%
Reims 1+ goals
85%
Reims 2+ goals
56%
Reims 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Cannes (draw refunded)
36%
Reims (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cannes at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Reims away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cannes attack 1.82 + Reims defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.38

Reims attack 2.36 + Cannes defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cannes scores more
28%
level
22%
Reims scores more
50%

Reims at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
H. AbderrahmaneCannesCannes · D
7.7

Match Events

14'
H. Ibrahim↳ M. Diakhon
35'
Cheikh N'Doye
39'
Lorenzo Vinci
52'
T. Teuma← M. Diakhon
52'
C. N'Doye↳ C. Gonçalves
58'
T. Teuma↳ H. Ibrahim
70'
O. Diakité← H. Ibrahim
70'
Amadou Koné← V. Atangana Edoa
74'
Mory Gbane
77'
D. Maï← M. Fischer
77'
A. Tia← J. Ito
88'
T. Trinker← L. Vinci

Possession

61%Cannes

Shots

17Cannes

Pass accuracy

56%Cannes

Statistics

CannesReims
Overview
61%Possession39%
17Total Shots10
10Corners1
13Fouls11
Shots
17Total Shots10
4On Target5
7Off Target3
6Blocked2
11Inside Box7
6Outside Box3
Passing
61%Possession39%
473Total Passes314
394Accurate Passes207
83%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Cannes 1 – 2 Reims

Reims beat Cannes 2-1 in Coupe de France on April 2, 2025.

Goals: H. Ibrahim (14'), C. N'Doye (52'), T. Teuma (58').

Cannes controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade Pierre de Coubertin in Cannes.