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Çankaya FK vs Ofspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Çankaya FK
Çankaya FK
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Ofspor
Ofspor
9/29/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundYenimahalle Hasan Doğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Çankaya FK44%
×Draw23%
Ofspor33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Çankaya FK
1.75
Ofspor
1.50

Çankaya FK creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Çankaya FK
2.00
Ofspor
1.00

allows per match

Çankaya FK
2.00
Ofspor
1.50

finishing

Çankaya FK+0.00on par
Ofspor+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Çankaya FK ↓

Ofspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Çankaya FK or draw
67%
Çankaya FK or Ofspor
77%
Draw or Ofspor
56%

Winning margin

Çankaya FK wins by 2+
23%
Ofspor wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Çankaya FK 1+ goals
83%
Çankaya FK 2+ goals
52%
Çankaya FK 3+ goals
25%
Ofspor 1+ goals
78%
Ofspor 2+ goals
44%
Ofspor 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Çankaya FK (draw refunded)
57%
Ofspor (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Çankaya FK at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Ofspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Çankaya FK attack 2.00 + Ofspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ofspor attack 1.00 + Çankaya FK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Çankaya FK scores more
44%
level
23%
Ofspor scores more
33%

Çankaya FK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Çankaya FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Çankaya FK vs Ofspor

Çankaya FK beat Ofspor 3-2 in Türkiye Kupası on September 29, 2021.

The match was played at Yenimahalle Hasan Doğan Stadyumu in Ankara.