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Çankaya FK vs Nilüfer Belediye — League #552 2026

Çankaya FK
Çankaya FK
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nilüfer Belediye
Nilüfer Belediye
B. Baskaya 69'
S. Ilgaz 11'
K. E. Sagim 47'
11/2/2025League #552League #552 · Group 1 - 9Osmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Çankaya FK40%
×Draw26%
Nilüfer Belediye34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Çankaya FK
1.38
Nilüfer Belediye
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 3 away

creates per match

Çankaya FK
1.42
Nilüfer Belediye
1.00

allows per match

Çankaya FK
1.53
Nilüfer Belediye
1.33

finishing

Çankaya FK+0.00on par
Nilüfer Belediye+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Çankaya FK ↓

Nilüfer Belediye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Çankaya FK or draw
66%
Çankaya FK or Nilüfer Belediye
74%
Draw or Nilüfer Belediye
60%

Winning margin

Çankaya FK wins by 2+
18%
Nilüfer Belediye wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Çankaya FK 1+ goals
75%
Çankaya FK 2+ goals
40%
Çankaya FK 3+ goals
16%
Nilüfer Belediye 1+ goals
72%
Nilüfer Belediye 2+ goals
36%
Nilüfer Belediye 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Çankaya FK (draw refunded)
53%
Nilüfer Belediye (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Çankaya FK at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Nilüfer Belediye away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Çankaya FK attack 1.42 + Nilüfer Belediye defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Nilüfer Belediye attack 1.00 + Çankaya FK defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Çankaya FK scores more
40%
level
26%
Nilüfer Belediye scores more
34%

Çankaya FK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Çankaya FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
S. Ilgaz
47'
K. E. Sagim
69'
B. Baskaya

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #552: Çankaya FK 2–1 Nilüfer Belediye

Çankaya FK beat Nilüfer Belediye 2-1 in League #552 on November 2, 2025.

Goals: S. Ilgaz (11'), K. E. Sagim (47'), B. Baskaya (69').

The match was played at Osmanlı Stadı in Ankara.