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Çankaya FK vs İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik — League #552 2026

Çankaya FK
Çankaya FK
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
S. Ilgaz 48'
E. Kara 79'
U. Dogdu 13'
1/11/2026League #552League #552 · Group 1 - 16Osmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Çankaya FK21%
×Draw22%
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Çankaya FK
1.08
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
1.89

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik creates 75% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 4 away

creates per match

Çankaya FK
1.42
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
2.25

allows per match

Çankaya FK
1.53
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
0.75

finishing

Çankaya FK+0.00on par
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Çankaya FK ↓

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Çankaya FK or draw
44%
Çankaya FK or İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
78%
Draw or İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
79%

Winning margin

Çankaya FK wins by 2+
8%
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Çankaya FK 1+ goals
66%
Çankaya FK 2+ goals
29%
Çankaya FK 3+ goals
10%
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 1+ goals
85%
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 2+ goals
56%
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Çankaya FK (draw refunded)
28%
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Çankaya FK at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Çankaya FK attack 1.42 + İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.08

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik attack 2.25 + Çankaya FK defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Çankaya FK scores more
21%
level
22%
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik scores more
56%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
U. Dogdu
48'
S. Ilgaz
79'
E. Kara

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #552: Çankaya FK 1–2 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik beat Çankaya FK 2-1 in League #552 on January 11, 2026.

Goals: U. Dogdu (13'), S. Ilgaz (48'), E. Kara (79').

The match was played at Osmanlı Stadı in Ankara.