Çankaya FK 2–0 1461 Trabzon FK: Result & Stats

Çankaya FK

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

1461 Trabzon FK

I. Kurt 85', 45' (pen)

10/29/2025

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Çankaya FK68%

×Draw17%

1461 Trabzon FK15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Çankaya FKExpected goals in this match1461 Trabzon FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.13

Çankaya FK

2.56

1461 Trabzon FK

1.13

Çankaya FK creates 127% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

2.00

creates per match

0.25

2.00

allows per match

3.13

creates per match

Çankaya FK

2.00

1461 Trabzon FK

0.25

allows per match

Çankaya FK

2.00

1461 Trabzon FK

3.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Çankaya FK+0.00on par

1461 Trabzon FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Çankaya FK ↓

1461 Trabzon FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Çankaya FK or draw

85%

Çankaya FK or 1461 Trabzon FK

83%

Draw or 1461 Trabzon FK

32%

Winning margin

Çankaya FK wins by 2+

46%

1461 Trabzon FK wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Çankaya FK 1+ goals

92%

Çankaya FK 2+ goals

72%

Çankaya FK 3+ goals

46%

1461 Trabzon FK 1+ goals

68%

1461 Trabzon FK 2+ goals

31%

1461 Trabzon FK 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Çankaya FK (draw refunded)

82%

1461 Trabzon FK (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Çankaya FK at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

1461 Trabzon FK away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Çankaya FK attack 2.00 + 1461 Trabzon FK defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.56

1461 Trabzon FK attack 0.25 + Çankaya FK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Çankaya FK scores more

68%

level

17%

1461 Trabzon FK scores more

15%

Çankaya FK at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Çankaya FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

I. KurtPenalty

85'

I. Kurt

Çankaya

1461

Manager: Gürkan Aslan

Manager: Muzaffer Bilazer