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Canillas vs Villanueva Pardillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Canillas
Canillas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 33Estadio Canillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Canillas33%
×Draw29%
Villanueva Pardillo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canillas
1.07
Villanueva Pardillo
1.18

Villanueva Pardillo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 50 away

creates per match

Canillas
1.04
Villanueva Pardillo
0.90

allows per match

Canillas
1.45
Villanueva Pardillo
1.10

finishing

Canillas+0.00on par
Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canillas ↓

Villanueva Pardillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Canillas or draw
62%
Canillas or Villanueva Pardillo
71%
Draw or Villanueva Pardillo
67%

Winning margin

Canillas wins by 2+
13%
Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Canillas 1+ goals
66%
Canillas 2+ goals
29%
Canillas 3+ goals
9%
Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
69%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
33%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Canillas (draw refunded)
46%
Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canillas at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.45 · 49 matches

Villanueva Pardillo away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canillas attack 1.04 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.07

Villanueva Pardillo attack 0.90 + Canillas defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Canillas scores more
33%
level
29%
Villanueva Pardillo scores more
38%

Villanueva Pardillo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Villanueva Pardillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Canillas 2–0 Villanueva Pardillo

Canillas beat Villanueva Pardillo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Canillas in Madrid.