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Canillas vs Trival Valderas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Canillas
Canillas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
4/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 31Estadio Canillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Canillas35%
×Draw28%
Trival Valderas37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canillas
1.17
Trival Valderas
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 115 away

creates per match

Canillas
1.04
Trival Valderas
0.97

allows per match

Canillas
1.45
Trival Valderas
1.30

finishing

Canillas+0.00on par
Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canillas ↓

Trival Valderas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Canillas or draw
63%
Canillas or Trival Valderas
72%
Draw or Trival Valderas
65%

Winning margin

Canillas wins by 2+
15%
Trival Valderas wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Canillas 1+ goals
69%
Canillas 2+ goals
33%
Canillas 3+ goals
11%
Trival Valderas 1+ goals
70%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
34%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Canillas (draw refunded)
49%
Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canillas at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.45 · 49 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canillas attack 1.04 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + Canillas defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Canillas scores more
35%
level
28%
Trival Valderas scores more
37%

Trival Valderas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Trival Valderas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Canillas vs Trival Valderas

Canillas and Trival Valderas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Canillas in Madrid.