Canillas 0–1 Real Aranjuez: Result & Stats

Canillas

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Aranjuez

9/25/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 3Estadio Canillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Canillas50%

×Draw24%

Real Aranjuez26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CanillasExpected goals in this matchReal Aranjuez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.13

Canillas

1.67

Real Aranjuez

1.13

Canillas creates 48% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 31 away

1.04

creates per match

0.81

1.45

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Canillas

1.04

Real Aranjuez

0.81

allows per match

Canillas

1.45

Real Aranjuez

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Canillas+0.00on par

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canillas ↓

Real Aranjuez →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Canillas or draw

74%

Canillas or Real Aranjuez

76%

Draw or Real Aranjuez

50%

Winning margin

Canillas wins by 2+

27%

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Canillas 1+ goals

81%

Canillas 2+ goals

50%

Canillas 3+ goals

23%

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals

68%

Real Aranjuez 2+ goals

31%

Real Aranjuez 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Canillas (draw refunded)

66%

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Canillas at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.45 · 49 matches

Real Aranjuez away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Canillas attack 1.04 + Real Aranjuez defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.67

Real Aranjuez attack 0.81 + Canillas defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Canillas scores more

50%

level

24%

Real Aranjuez scores more

26%

Canillas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Canillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff