Canillas 1–2 Cala Pozuelo: Result & Stats

Canillas

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Cala Pozuelo

9/15/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2Centro Deportivo Municipal Luis Aragonés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Canillas37%

×Draw26%

Cala Pozuelo37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CanillasExpected goals in this matchCala Pozuelo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

Canillas

1.34

Cala Pozuelo

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 17 away

1.04

creates per match

1.24

1.45

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Canillas

1.04

Cala Pozuelo

1.24

allows per match

Canillas

1.45

Cala Pozuelo

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Canillas+0.00on par

Cala Pozuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canillas ↓

Cala Pozuelo →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Canillas or draw

63%

Canillas or Cala Pozuelo

74%

Draw or Cala Pozuelo

63%

Winning margin

Canillas wins by 2+

17%

Cala Pozuelo wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Canillas 1+ goals

74%

Canillas 2+ goals

39%

Canillas 3+ goals

15%

Cala Pozuelo 1+ goals

74%

Cala Pozuelo 2+ goals

39%

Cala Pozuelo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Canillas (draw refunded)

50%

Cala Pozuelo (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Canillas at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.45 · 49 matches

Cala Pozuelo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Canillas attack 1.04 + Cala Pozuelo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.34

Cala Pozuelo attack 1.24 + Canillas defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Canillas scores more

37%

level

26%

Cala Pozuelo scores more

37%

Canillas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Canillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff