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Canillas vs Alcobendas Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Canillas
Canillas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
3/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 26Estadio Canillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Canillas32%
×Draw27%
Alcobendas Sport42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canillas
1.17
Alcobendas Sport
1.38

Alcobendas Sport creates 18% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 117 away

creates per match

Canillas
1.04
Alcobendas Sport
1.31

allows per match

Canillas
1.45
Alcobendas Sport
1.30

finishing

Canillas+0.00on par
Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canillas ↓

Alcobendas Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Canillas or draw
58%
Canillas or Alcobendas Sport
73%
Draw or Alcobendas Sport
68%

Winning margin

Canillas wins by 2+
13%
Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Canillas 1+ goals
69%
Canillas 2+ goals
33%
Canillas 3+ goals
11%
Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
75%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
40%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Canillas (draw refunded)
43%
Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canillas at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.45 · 49 matches

Alcobendas Sport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canillas attack 1.04 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.31 + Canillas defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Canillas scores more
32%
level
27%
Alcobendas Sport scores more
42%

Alcobendas Sport at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alcobendas Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Canillas vs Alcobendas Sport

Canillas beat Alcobendas Sport 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Canillas in Madrid.