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Canelas 2010 vs Varzim — Liga 3 2021

Canelas 2010
Canelas 2010
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Varzim
Varzim
11/26/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 10Estádio Clube Futebol Canelas 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Canelas 201040%
×Draw27%
Varzim33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canelas 2010
1.31
Varzim
1.15

Canelas 2010 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 62 away

creates per match

Canelas 2010
1.40
Varzim
0.92

allows per match

Canelas 2010
1.38
Varzim
1.23

finishing

Canelas 2010+0.00on par
Varzim+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canelas 2010 ↓

Varzim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Canelas 2010 or draw
67%
Canelas 2010 or Varzim
73%
Draw or Varzim
60%

Winning margin

Canelas 2010 wins by 2+
18%
Varzim wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Canelas 2010 1+ goals
73%
Canelas 2010 2+ goals
38%
Canelas 2010 3+ goals
14%
Varzim 1+ goals
68%
Varzim 2+ goals
32%
Varzim 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Canelas 2010 (draw refunded)
55%
Varzim (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canelas 2010 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

Varzim away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canelas 2010 attack 1.40 + Varzim defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Varzim attack 0.92 + Canelas 2010 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Canelas 2010 scores more
40%
level
27%
Varzim scores more
33%

Canelas 2010 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Canelas 2010 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Canelas 2010 3–2 Varzim

Canelas 2010 beat Varzim 3-2 in Liga 3 on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Clube Futebol Canelas 2010 in Vila Nova de Gaia.