Canelas 2010 3–1 Valadares Gaia: Result & Stats

Canelas 2010

FT

3 – 1

Valadares Gaia

9/8/2019

Taça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio do Canelas Gaia Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Canelas 201063%

×Draw19%

Valadares Gaia19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Canelas 2010Expected goals in this matchValadares Gaia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.27

Canelas 2010

2.45

Valadares Gaia

1.27

Canelas 2010 creates 93% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

3.56

creates per match

1.33

1.22

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Canelas 2010

3.56

Valadares Gaia

1.33

allows per match

Canelas 2010

1.22

Valadares Gaia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Canelas 2010+0.00on par

Valadares Gaia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canelas 2010 ↓

Valadares Gaia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Canelas 2010 or draw

81%

Canelas 2010 or Valadares Gaia

81%

Draw or Valadares Gaia

37%

Winning margin

Canelas 2010 wins by 2+

41%

Valadares Gaia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Canelas 2010 1+ goals

91%

Canelas 2010 2+ goals

70%

Canelas 2010 3+ goals

44%

Valadares Gaia 1+ goals

72%

Valadares Gaia 2+ goals

36%

Valadares Gaia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Canelas 2010 (draw refunded)

77%

Valadares Gaia (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canelas 2010 at home — creates 3.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Valadares Gaia away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canelas 2010 attack 3.56 + Valadares Gaia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.45

Valadares Gaia attack 1.33 + Canelas 2010 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Canelas 2010 scores more

63%

level

19%

Valadares Gaia scores more

19%

Canelas 2010 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Canelas 2010 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff