Canelas 2010 5–0 Fontinhas: Result & Stats

Canelas 2010

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Fontinhas

9/24/2023

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Clube Futebol Canelas 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Canelas 201070%

×Draw15%

Fontinhas14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Canelas 2010Expected goals in this matchFontinhas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.98

1.31

Canelas 2010

2.98

Fontinhas

1.31

Canelas 2010 creates 127% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

3.56

creates per match

1.40

1.22

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Canelas 2010

3.56

Fontinhas

1.40

allows per match

Canelas 2010

1.22

Fontinhas

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Canelas 2010+0.00on par

Fontinhas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canelas 2010 ↓

Fontinhas →

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Canelas 2010 or draw

86%

Canelas 2010 or Fontinhas

85%

Draw or Fontinhas

30%

Winning margin

Canelas 2010 wins by 2+

50%

Fontinhas wins by 2+

Team goals

Canelas 2010 1+ goals

95%

Canelas 2010 2+ goals

79%

Canelas 2010 3+ goals

56%

Fontinhas 1+ goals

73%

Fontinhas 2+ goals

38%

Fontinhas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Canelas 2010 (draw refunded)

83%

Fontinhas (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Canelas 2010 at home — creates 3.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Fontinhas away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Canelas 2010 attack 3.56 + Fontinhas defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.98

Fontinhas attack 1.40 + Canelas 2010 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Canelas 2010 scores more

70%

level

15%

Fontinhas scores more

14%

Canelas 2010 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Canelas 2010 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff