Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cancún vs Venados FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Cancún
Cancún
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Venados FC
Venados FC
2/16/2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 6Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Cancún51%
×Draw26%
Venados FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cancún
1.54
Venados FC
0.96

Cancún creates 60% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 129 away

creates per match

Cancún
1.51
Venados FC
0.98

allows per match

Cancún
0.94
Venados FC
1.58

finishing

Cancún+0.00on par
Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cancún ↓

Venados FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cancún or draw
76%
Cancún or Venados FC
74%
Draw or Venados FC
49%

Winning margin

Cancún wins by 2+
26%
Venados FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cancún 1+ goals
79%
Cancún 2+ goals
45%
Cancún 3+ goals
20%
Venados FC 1+ goals
62%
Venados FC 2+ goals
25%
Venados FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cancún (draw refunded)
68%
Venados FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cancún at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 101 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cancún attack 1.51 + Venados FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Venados FC attack 0.98 + Cancún defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cancún scores more
51%
level
26%
Venados FC scores more
24%

Cancún at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cancún will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Cancún 1–2 Venados FC

Venados FC beat Cancún 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo in Cancún.