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Cancún vs Raya2 — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Cancún
Cancún
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Raya2
Raya2
2/24/2022Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 9Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cancún46%
×Draw28%
Raya226%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cancún
1.36
Raya2
0.94

Cancún creates 45% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 34 away

creates per match

Cancún
1.51
Raya2
0.94

allows per match

Cancún
0.94
Raya2
1.21

finishing

Cancún+0.00on par
Raya2+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cancún ↓

Raya2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cancún or draw
74%
Cancún or Raya2
72%
Draw or Raya2
54%

Winning margin

Cancún wins by 2+
22%
Raya2 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cancún 1+ goals
74%
Cancún 2+ goals
39%
Cancún 3+ goals
16%
Raya2 1+ goals
61%
Raya2 2+ goals
24%
Raya2 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cancún (draw refunded)
64%
Raya2 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cancún at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 101 matches

Raya2 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cancún attack 1.51 + Raya2 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.36

Raya2 attack 0.94 + Cancún defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cancún scores more
46%
level
28%
Raya2 scores more
26%

Cancún at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cancún will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Cancún 0–0 Raya2

Cancún and Raya2 drew 0-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on February 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo in Cancún.