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Cancún vs Pumas Tabasco — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Cancún
Cancún
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pumas Tabasco
Pumas Tabasco
10/18/2020Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 9Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Cancún48%
×Draw25%
Pumas Tabasco27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cancún
1.56
Pumas Tabasco
1.10

Cancún creates 42% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 50 away

creates per match

Cancún
1.51
Pumas Tabasco
1.26

allows per match

Cancún
0.94
Pumas Tabasco
1.60

finishing

Cancún+0.00on par
Pumas Tabasco+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cancún ↓

Pumas Tabasco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cancún or draw
73%
Cancún or Pumas Tabasco
75%
Draw or Pumas Tabasco
52%

Winning margin

Cancún wins by 2+
25%
Pumas Tabasco wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cancún 1+ goals
79%
Cancún 2+ goals
46%
Cancún 3+ goals
21%
Pumas Tabasco 1+ goals
67%
Pumas Tabasco 2+ goals
30%
Pumas Tabasco 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cancún (draw refunded)
64%
Pumas Tabasco (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cancún at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 101 matches

Pumas Tabasco away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cancún attack 1.51 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Pumas Tabasco attack 1.26 + Cancún defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cancún scores more
48%
level
25%
Pumas Tabasco scores more
27%

Cancún at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cancún will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cancún vs Pumas Tabasco

Cancún beat Pumas Tabasco 4-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo in Cancún.