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Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Cancún
Cancún
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1/25/2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Cancún54%
×Draw24%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cancún
1.66
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0.94

Cancún creates 77% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 124 away

creates per match

Cancún
1.51
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0.93

allows per match

Cancún
0.94
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.80

finishing

Cancún+0.00on par
Alebrijes de Oaxaca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cancún ↓

Alebrijes de Oaxaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cancún or draw
79%
Cancún or Alebrijes de Oaxaca
76%
Draw or Alebrijes de Oaxaca
46%

Winning margin

Cancún wins by 2+
29%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cancún 1+ goals
81%
Cancún 2+ goals
49%
Cancún 3+ goals
23%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1+ goals
61%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2+ goals
24%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cancún (draw refunded)
72%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cancún at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 101 matches

Alebrijes de Oaxaca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cancún attack 1.51 + Alebrijes de Oaxaca defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.66

Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack 0.93 + Cancún defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cancún scores more
54%
level
24%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca scores more
21%

Cancún at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cancún will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Cancún 1–1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Cancún and Alebrijes de Oaxaca drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on January 25, 2026.