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Estac Troyes vs Arles — Ligue 2 2010

Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Arles
Arles
B. Nivet 70', 30'
S. Darbion 18'
K. Azamoum 8'
5/8/2015Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 36Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Estac Troyes54%
×Draw26%
Arles20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estac Troyes
1.53
Arles
0.82

Estac Troyes creates 87% more chances

Season form · 189 home / 76 away

creates per match

Estac Troyes
1.63
Arles
0.78

allows per match

Estac Troyes
0.87
Arles
1.43

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par
Arles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Arles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw
80%
Estac Troyes or Arles
74%
Draw or Arles
46%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+
28%
Arles wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals
78%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
45%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
20%
Arles 1+ goals
56%
Arles 2+ goals
20%
Arles 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
73%
Arles (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.87 · 189 matches

Arles away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.63 + Arles defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.53

Arles attack 0.78 + Estac Troyes defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Estac Troyes scores more
54%
level
26%
Arles scores more
20%

Estac Troyes at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
K. Azamoum
18'
S. Darbion
19'
B. Nivet← Y. Court
30'
B. Nivet
58'
B. Psaume← K. Kone
58'
F. Cissé← T. Savanier
58'
M. Niang← M. Blanc
66'
C. Ben Saada← K. Azamoum
70'
B. Nivet
72'
Thiago Xavier← J. Pi

Possession

Estac: 55Arles: 4555%Estac

Statistics

EstacArles
Overview
55%Possession45%
5Corners5
12Fouls8
Shots
8On Target3
5Off Target5
Passing
55%Possession45%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls8
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Ligue 2: Estac Troyes 4–0 Arles

Estac Troyes beat Arles 4-0 in Ligue 2 on May 8, 2015.

Goals: K. Azamoum (8'), S. Darbion (18'), B. Nivet (30', 70').

Estac Troyes dominated possession with 55% of the ball.

The match was played at Stade de l'Aube in Troyes.