Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

UNIRB vs ABPN Canaã — Baiano - 2 2019

UNIRB
UNIRB
FT
2 – 0
ABPN Canaã
ABPN Canaã
4/14/2019Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 6Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

UNIRB70%
×Draw19%
ABPN Canaã11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNIRB
2.14
ABPN Canaã
0.71

UNIRB creates 201% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

UNIRB
2.46
ABPN Canaã
0.64

allows per match

UNIRB
0.77
ABPN Canaã
1.82

finishing

UNIRB+0.00on par
ABPN Canaã+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNIRB ↓

ABPN Canaã →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

UNIRB or draw
89%
UNIRB or ABPN Canaã
81%
Draw or ABPN Canaã
30%

Winning margin

UNIRB wins by 2+
46%
ABPN Canaã wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

UNIRB 1+ goals
88%
UNIRB 2+ goals
63%
UNIRB 3+ goals
36%
ABPN Canaã 1+ goals
51%
ABPN Canaã 2+ goals
16%
ABPN Canaã 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

UNIRB (draw refunded)
86%
ABPN Canaã (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNIRB at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

ABPN Canaã away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNIRB attack 2.46 + ABPN Canaã defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.14

ABPN Canaã attack 0.64 + UNIRB defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

UNIRB scores more
70%
level
19%
ABPN Canaã scores more
11%

UNIRB at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "UNIRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: UNIRB 2–0 ABPN Canaã

UNIRB beat ABPN Canaã 2-0 in Baiano - 2 on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro in Alagoinhas, Bahia.