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Canada W vs Australia W — World Cup - Women 2019

Canada W
Canada W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Australia W
Australia W
7/31/2023World Cup - WomenWorld Cup - Women · Group Stage - 3AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Canada W22%
×Draw22%
Australia W56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canada W
1.13
Australia W
1.96

Australia W creates 73% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Canada W
1.25
Australia W
2.67

allows per match

Canada W
1.25
Australia W
1.00

finishing

Canada W+0.00on par
Australia W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canada W ↓

Australia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Canada W or draw
44%
Canada W or Australia W
78%
Draw or Australia W
78%

Winning margin

Canada W wins by 2+
8%
Australia W wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Canada W 1+ goals
68%
Canada W 2+ goals
31%
Canada W 3+ goals
11%
Australia W 1+ goals
86%
Australia W 2+ goals
58%
Australia W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Canada W (draw refunded)
28%
Australia W (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canada W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Australia W away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canada W attack 1.25 + Australia W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Australia W attack 2.67 + Canada W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Canada W scores more
22%
level
22%
Australia W scores more
56%

Australia W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Australia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

World Cup - Women: Canada W 0–4 Australia W

Australia W beat Canada W 4-0 in World Cup - Women on July 31, 2023.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.