Canada 4–2 Ukraine: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Canada

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Ukraine

Tajon Buchanan 81'

Promise David 31'

Jonathan David 24', 4'

Oleksandr Zinchenko 90+2' (pen)

Illia Zabarnyi 89'

6/7/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1BMO Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Canada43%

×Draw27%

Ukraine30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CanadaExpected goals in this matchUkraine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.08

Canada

1.37

Ukraine

1.08

Canada creates 27% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

1.15

creates per match

1.47

0.69

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Canada

1.15

Ukraine

1.47

allows per match

Canada

0.69

Ukraine

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Canada+0.00on par

Ukraine+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canada ↓

Ukraine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Canada or draw

70%

Canada or Ukraine

73%

Draw or Ukraine

57%

Winning margin

Canada wins by 2+

20%

Ukraine wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Canada 1+ goals

75%

Canada 2+ goals

40%

Canada 3+ goals

16%

Ukraine 1+ goals

66%

Ukraine 2+ goals

29%

Ukraine 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Canada (draw refunded)

59%

Ukraine (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canada at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Ukraine away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canada attack 1.15 + Ukraine defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.37

Ukraine attack 1.47 + Canada defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Canada scores more

43%

level

27%

Ukraine scores more

30%

Canada at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Canada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Jonathan David

Canada · F

8.3

Match Events

4'

Jonathan David

24'

Jonathan David↳ Tajon Buchanan

31'

Promise David

46'

Daniel Jebbison← Promise David

58'

Oleksandr Pikhalyonok← Mykola Shaparenko

64'

Richie Laryea← Niko Sigur

64'

Jamie Knight-Lebel← Derek Cornelius

64'

Jayden Nelson← Jacob Shaffelburg

66'

Oleksii Hutsuliak← Mykola Matviyenko

66'

Oleksandr Zubkov← Viktor Tsygankov

66'

Dmytro Riznyk← Anatoliy Trubin

66'

Mykola Mykhailenko← Roman Yaremchuk

68'

Jayden Nelson

79'

Cyle Larin← Jonathan David

81'

Tajon Buchanan↳ Luc De Fougerolles

82'

Vladyslav Kabaiev← Ivan Kalyuzhnyi

85'

Sam Adekugbe← Zorhan Bassong

89'

Illia Zabarnyi

90+2'

Oleksandr ZinchenkoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CanadaUkraine

Overview

37%Possession63%

12Total Shots13

1Corners7

16Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots13

6On Target8

4Off Target2

2Blocked3

11Inside Box8

1Outside Box5

Passing

37%Possession63%

333Total Passes573

270Accurate Passes505

81%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

4Offsides4