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Canada vs Panama — Friendlies 2026

Canada
Canada
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Panama
Panama
10/15/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1BMO Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Canada60%
×Draw24%
Panama16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canada
1.68
Panama
0.74

Canada creates 127% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 30 away

creates per match

Canada
1.15
Panama
0.80

allows per match

Canada
0.69
Panama
2.20

finishing

Canada+0.00on par
Panama+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canada ↓

Panama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Canada or draw
84%
Canada or Panama
76%
Draw or Panama
40%

Winning margin

Canada wins by 2+
33%
Panama wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Canada 1+ goals
81%
Canada 2+ goals
50%
Canada 3+ goals
24%
Panama 1+ goals
52%
Panama 2+ goals
17%
Panama 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Canada (draw refunded)
79%
Panama (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canada at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Panama away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canada attack 1.15 + Panama defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.68

Panama attack 0.80 + Canada defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Canada scores more
60%
level
24%
Panama scores more
16%

Canada at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Canada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Canada vs Panama

Canada beat Panama 2-1 in Friendlies on October 15, 2024.

The match was played at BMO Field in Toronto, Ontario.