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Can Vidalet vs Cornellà — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Can Vidalet
Can Vidalet
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Cornellà
Cornellà
Finot 46'
L. dos Reis 45'
Aliaga 23'
2/22/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 23Camp Municipal El Molí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Can Vidalet38%
×Draw28%
Cornellà34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Can Vidalet
1.21
Cornellà
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Can Vidalet
1.24
Cornellà
1.11

allows per match

Can Vidalet
1.12
Cornellà
1.17

finishing

Can Vidalet+0.00on par
Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Can Vidalet ↓

Cornellà →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Can Vidalet or draw
66%
Can Vidalet or Cornellà
72%
Draw or Cornellà
62%

Winning margin

Can Vidalet wins by 2+
16%
Cornellà wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Can Vidalet 1+ goals
70%
Can Vidalet 2+ goals
34%
Can Vidalet 3+ goals
12%
Cornellà 1+ goals
67%
Cornellà 2+ goals
31%
Cornellà 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Can Vidalet (draw refunded)
53%
Cornellà (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Can Vidalet at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Cornellà away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Can Vidalet attack 1.24 + Cornellà defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cornellà attack 1.11 + Can Vidalet defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Can Vidalet scores more
38%
level
28%
Cornellà scores more
34%

Can Vidalet at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Can Vidalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
Aliaga
45'
L. dos Reis
46'
Finot
90+4'
I. Arques
90+4'
I. Arques

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Can Vidalet 1–2 Cornellà

Cornellà beat Can Vidalet 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 22, 2026.

Goals: Aliaga (23'), L. dos Reis (45'), Finot (46').

The match was played at Camp Municipal El Molí in Esplugues de Llobregat.