Campos 3–1 Son Veri: Result & Stats

Campos

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Son Veri

10/12/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 8Camp Municipal d'Esports de Campos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Campos67%

×Draw18%

Son Veri14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CamposExpected goals in this matchSon Veri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

0.95

Campos

2.30

Son Veri

0.95

Campos creates 142% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 20 away

0.95

creates per match

0.40

1.49

allows per match

3.65

creates per match

Campos

0.95

Son Veri

0.40

allows per match

Campos

1.49

Son Veri

3.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Campos+0.00on par

Son Veri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campos ↓

Son Veri →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Campos or draw

86%

Campos or Son Veri

82%

Draw or Son Veri

33%

Winning margin

Campos wins by 2+

44%

Son Veri wins by 2+

Team goals

Campos 1+ goals

90%

Campos 2+ goals

67%

Campos 3+ goals

40%

Son Veri 1+ goals

61%

Son Veri 2+ goals

25%

Son Veri 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Campos (draw refunded)

83%

Son Veri (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Campos at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.49 · 37 matches

Son Veri away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Campos attack 0.95 + Son Veri defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.30

Son Veri attack 0.40 + Campos defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Campos scores more

67%

level

18%

Son Veri scores more

14%

Campos at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Campos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff