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Campos vs Santanyí — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Campos
Campos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Santanyí
Santanyí
4/14/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 39Camp Municipal d'Esports de Campos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Campos33%
×Draw27%
Santanyí40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campos
1.19
Santanyí
1.33

Santanyí creates 12% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 113 away

creates per match

Campos
0.95
Santanyí
1.17

allows per match

Campos
1.49
Santanyí
1.42

finishing

Campos+0.00on par
Santanyí+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campos ↓

Santanyí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Campos or draw
60%
Campos or Santanyí
73%
Draw or Santanyí
67%

Winning margin

Campos wins by 2+
14%
Santanyí wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Campos 1+ goals
70%
Campos 2+ goals
33%
Campos 3+ goals
12%
Santanyí 1+ goals
74%
Santanyí 2+ goals
38%
Santanyí 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Campos (draw refunded)
45%
Santanyí (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campos at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.49 · 37 matches

Santanyí away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campos attack 0.95 + Santanyí defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Santanyí attack 1.17 + Campos defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Campos scores more
33%
level
27%
Santanyí scores more
40%

Santanyí at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Santanyí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Campos 1–2 Santanyí

Santanyí beat Campos 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 14, 2022.

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports de Campos in Mallorca.