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Campos vs Penya Independent — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Campos
Campos
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Penya Independent
Penya Independent
1/15/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 16Camp Municipal d'Esports de Campos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Campos27%
×Draw28%
Penya Independent45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campos
0.93
Penya Independent
1.29

Penya Independent creates 39% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 32 away

creates per match

Campos
0.95
Penya Independent
1.09

allows per match

Campos
1.49
Penya Independent
0.91

finishing

Campos+0.00on par
Penya Independent+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campos ↓

Penya Independent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Campos or draw
55%
Campos or Penya Independent
72%
Draw or Penya Independent
73%

Winning margin

Campos wins by 2+
9%
Penya Independent wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Campos 1+ goals
61%
Campos 2+ goals
24%
Campos 3+ goals
7%
Penya Independent 1+ goals
72%
Penya Independent 2+ goals
37%
Penya Independent 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Campos (draw refunded)
37%
Penya Independent (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campos at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.49 · 37 matches

Penya Independent away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campos attack 0.95 + Penya Independent defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

Penya Independent attack 1.09 + Campos defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Campos scores more
27%
level
28%
Penya Independent scores more
45%

Penya Independent at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Penya Independent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Campos vs Penya Independent

Penya Independent beat Campos 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 15, 2025.

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports de Campos in Mallorca.