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Campos vs Collerense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Campos
Campos
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Collerense
Collerense
4/2/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 37Camp Municipal d'Esports de Campos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Campos41%
×Draw26%
Collerense33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campos
1.42
Collerense
1.25

Campos creates 14% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 113 away

creates per match

Campos
0.95
Collerense
1.00

allows per match

Campos
1.49
Collerense
1.88

finishing

Campos+0.00on par
Collerense+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campos ↓

Collerense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Campos or draw
67%
Campos or Collerense
74%
Draw or Collerense
59%

Winning margin

Campos wins by 2+
19%
Collerense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Campos 1+ goals
76%
Campos 2+ goals
41%
Campos 3+ goals
17%
Collerense 1+ goals
71%
Collerense 2+ goals
36%
Collerense 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Campos (draw refunded)
55%
Collerense (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campos at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.49 · 37 matches

Collerense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campos attack 0.95 + Collerense defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.42

Collerense attack 1.00 + Campos defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Campos scores more
41%
level
26%
Collerense scores more
33%

Campos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Campos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Campos 1–3 Collerense

Collerense beat Campos 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports de Campos in Mallorca.